CoupWatch Briefers

• As of 12 Aug, there had been at least 14,461 armed clashes and attacks, resulting in the displacement of 1,019,900 people since the coup began. Military tensions increased significantly in Rakhine State, with several clashes breaking out.

• Junta forces have killed at least 2,259 civilians and arrested 15,294 as of 31 Aug. A junta court sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi to a further six years in prison for corruption.

• Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing replaced top officials with loyalists to consolidate control ahead of the sham 2023 election.

• The Kyat continued its dive, forcing the regime to ease its disastrous exchange rate policies. Inflation kept driving up prices, leading to shortages.

• The regime executed four political prisoners — a first in decades. Opposition forces staged protest actions and vowed to step up resistance.

• The junta continued to crack down on pro-democracy activists and commit atrocity crimes throughout the country. Soldiers had killed at least 2,138 civilians and arrested 14,402 as of 29 Jul.

• The ICJ dismissed the regime’s preliminary objections in The Gambia vs Myanmar case, allowing the proceedings to move forward.

• The World Bank projected a mere 3% growth in 2021-22, warning that political and economic uncertainty had severely damaged Burma’s financial system.

• Junta troops continued to storm the countryside, committing scores of war crimes. The regime had killed at least 2,040 civilians and arrested 14,402 as of 30 Jun.

• A junta-controlled court issued execution orders for four high-profile opponents; the first in decades.

• The NUG made unprecedented commitments to address past wrongs against Rohingya and ethnic groups.

• The World Bank could not issue growth forecasts for Burma beyond 2021; highlighting the regime’s devastation of the economy.

• The number of IDPs exceeded one million for the first time. Junta troops continued to slash their way through Burma, killing civilians and torching villages. At least 5,646 civilians have been killed since 1 Feb 2021, a number unprecedented in the country’s modern history.
• Conflict heated up significantly in the West, with several clashes breaking out between the junta and the Arakan Army (AA).
• The regime took more steps to rig the next elections. It continued to persecute top NLD officials while pro-junta vigilante groups stepped up attacks on party members and supporters.

• In the face of nationwide resistance, junta forces engaged in a scorched-earth campaign. In less than 3 months (Feb–Apr 2022), they reportedly torched 5,617 homes in Sagaing Region alone. Since 2021, junta forces have destroyed at least 97 religious buildings nationwide.

• The junta continued to target relatives of people they hunted, including wives and children. It has killed at least 132 children.
• At least 1% of Burma’s population has been displaced since 1 Feb 2021, bringing the total number of IDPs to at least 912,700. The junta continued to block humanitarian aid.

• The cash-strapped junta required businesses to convert all foreign currency into MMK at an artificially low rate, further damaging the economy.

On 27 Mar, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing vowed to “annihilate the opposition.” As of 31 Mar, the junta had arrested at least 13,040 civilians, including politicians, activists, and journalists, and killed at least 2,053 civilians. The junta got dirtier in its tactics. It funded paramilitary groups, enacted “legislation” allowing it to conscript police into its war, used social media channels to discredit and hunt down its opposition, and demanded that hospitals turn over patient records to undermine treatment of opponents. Cities across Burma struggled with power blackouts as electricity production fell to a quarter of the national demand. Outages disrupted water distribution and business operations, while rising fuel prices made the use of generators unsustainable.

During 1–25 Feb, there were at least 741 armed clashes and attacks on civilians (or 29.64 per day), compared to 23.69/day over the prior twelve months. UNHCR said that 810,000 IDPs in Burma, likely a significant underestimate. As of 28 Feb, the junta had arrested at least 12,417 civilians, including politicians, activists, and journalists, and killed at least 1,869 civilians. COVID-19 cases spiked dramatically. The EU placed sanctions on Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). As new ASEAN Chair, Cambodia prevented the junta from attending the first ASEAN meeting of 2022, but conceded that it could do little to improve the situation.

In the year since the Burma military attempted to launch a coup, it has critically harmed millions of lives, the national economy, rule of law, natural resources, and governance.
Armed clashes and attacks on civilians rose by 762%. Just in January 2022, there were more of these incidents than during the entire year preceding the attempted coup.

ALTSEAN-Burma has tracked the most important updates during this time in its online thematic Coup Trackers, and summarized these updates by publishing a Coup Watch briefer each month. This special edition of the Coup Watch draws on these tools to provide a one-year overview.

Burma’s junta continued to escalate violence as it desperately sought to gain control of the country in the 12th month of its attempted coup. During 1–28 Jan 2022, there were at least 851 clashes or attacks on civilians, a 1,318% increase from January 2021. During its assault on Loikaw, the Karenni State capital, the junta bombed multiple IDP camps, and shut off electric, water, and internet services for the town. An estimated 50–90% of Loikaw’s population is displaced. The World Bank projected just 1% growth in 2022. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen visited Burma; civilians in Burma, the NUG government, and fellow ASEAN members denounced the move.

Burma’s illegitimate military regime kept trying to grind down a nation that overwhelmingly rejects it. During 1 Feb–10 Dec 2021, there were at least 7,053 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 664% increase from the same period in 2020. Increased attacks caused 5,000 Karen villagers to flee into Thailand, and pushed Thai villagers on the border to relocate for safety. As of 1 Dec, 432 NLD members remained in detention, while junta military tribunals had sentenced 92 people to death. UNDP warned that 46.3% of the population will be living in poverty in 2022. It is estimated that 14.4 million people will need humanitarian assistance in 2022.

During 1 Feb–26 Nov, there were 6,675 armed clashes and attacks on civilians, a 632% increase from the same period in 2020. The junta’s crimes resulted in a massive increase in displaced persons, including around 50,000 just in Chin, Sagaing, and Magway since May 2021. Junta courts handed down lengthy sentences to high-profile NLD leaders. Sham trials against Aung San Suu Kyi moved forward, but the court delayed two verdicts without explanation. Junta military courts sentenced 21 people to death and 29 to life in prison. The junta ordered its soldiers in Sagaing, Tanintharyi, and Mandalay Regions to shoot at any male passenger on a motorbike.

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finally rebuked the junta for failing to comply with its April Five-Point Consensus, choosing not to invite Min Aung Hlaing to its Summit on 26–28 October. Detained President Win Myint revealed that the military tried to strong arm him into resigning, adding to the list of reasons the junta is illegitimate. The junta poured thousands of troops into Northwest Burma, razed villages, and committed grievous human rights abuses. During 1 Feb–29 Oct, there were 5,685 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 574% increase from the same period in 2020 (843).

The National Unity Government (NUG) declared war on 7 September, officially acknowledging the nationwide civil war and recognizing the population’s right to self-defense. During 1 Feb–30 Sep, there were 5,042 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 588% increase from the same period in 2020. As of 1 Sep, the illegal junta had charged at least 100 NLD members, including Aung San Suu Kyi, with high treason (a capital offence), corruption, and incitement. As of 30 Sep, the junta had killed at least 1,146 civilians and detained at least 8,584 politicians, activists, journalists and others, in attacks against democracy.

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing declared himself prime minister of a “caretaker” government, but continued to call the shots as SAC Chair. Promised elections were pushed back to Aug 2023. The junta continued its crackdown on the NLD, and even made an attempt on the life of Kyaw Moe Tun, Burma’s Ambassador to the UN, in New York.

The coup ravaged the people of Burma. During Feb–Jul, there were 3,601 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 521% increase from the same months in 2020.

In the sixth month since its forcible and unconstitutional power grab, the junta’s oppressive acts to secure political, territorial, or economic control have escalated conflict and the deadliness of a third wave of COVID-19. COVID-19 ripped ferociously through Burma, where a weakened health system and junta restrictions on treatment measures contributed to untold deaths. As the junta brought testing closer to pre-coup levels, it saw COVID-19 positivity rates up to 40%.

During July alone, security forces killed at least 56 civilians. There were 348 violent attacks that either targeted or failed to protect civilians during 1–23 Jul, and a total 3,446 incidents 1 Feb–23 Jul.

In the fifth month since its forcible and unconstitutional power grab, the junta’s oppressive acts to secure political, territorial, or economic control have escalated conflict and the threats posed by a third wave of COVID-19.
Security forces created battlefields in more towns and cities, expanded airstrikes on Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, and Sagaing States/Regions, and shelled villages in all of these places as well as in Shan State. During June alone, security forces killed at least 81 civilians and displaced over 30,000. There were 538 violent attacks that either targeted or failed to protect civilians during 1–25 Jun, and a total 3,012 incidents 1 Feb–25 Jun.

The junta, still unable to gain political, territorial or economic control in the fourth month since its forcible and unconstitutional power grab, has engulfed the entire country in armed conflict. Security forces created battlefields in more towns and cities, expanded airstrikes on Kachin and Karen states, and continued shelling villages in Chin, Kachin, Karen, Shan, and Sagaing States/Regions. During May alone, security forces killed at least 125 civilians and displaced over 150,000. There were 530 violent attacks that either targeted or failed to protect civilians in the first three weeks of May, and a total 2,098 incidents 1 Feb–21 May.

The SAC junta continues to escalate its war on its own civilians in a desperate attempt to gain political, territorial and economic control of the country. Brutal crackdowns and massacres of civilian protestors in Burma's towns and cities are accompanied by deadly, indiscriminate airstrikes in Kachin and Karen States. During April alone, security forces killed at least 288 civilians and displaced over 27,000.The junta sentenced 26 civilians to death in military tribunals.

The junta, still unable to gain political, territorial or economic control in the second month of its power grab, has escalated military offensives on both the democracy movement and border-based ethnic communities. Security forces have unleashed lethal battlefield tactics and weapons on civilians throughout the country, killing scores in the towns and cities of Ayeyarwaddy, Bago, Kachin, Mandalay, Mon, Sagaing, Shan, Thanitharyi, and Yangon States and Regions.

A month after its 1 February 2021 coup, the military junta’s escalation of disproportionate violence and terror tactics, backed by deployment of notorious military units to repress peaceful demonstrations, underlines the urgent need for substantive international action to prevent massive, destabilizing violence.