CoupWatch Briefers

(EVERY MONTH)

Long-form monthly analysis of events resulting from the Burma military’s illegal coup d’etat beginning on 1 February 2021.

For regular updates on emerging events, please check our Thematic Trackers page.

For in-depth briefing papers on the junta’s administration – including economic policy, conflict and displacement, and human rights violations – please check our Special Reports page.

COUP WATCH
23 DEC 2024

  • ICC prosecutor applies for Min Aung Hlaing’s arrest warrant over Rohingya genocide.
  • ILO moves toward measures against the junta over labor rights violations.
  • Junta fires on Thai fishing vessel, detains 31 crew incl. four Thai nationals.
  • Updated data confirms suspicions of underreported conflict severity, civilian death toll nearly 13,000.
  • 1,003 victims in 2023 lands Burma at top of landmine casualties list.
  • China welcomes Min Aung Hlaing on first trip, makes CNY 1 billion pledge for census, surveillance and infrastructure.

COUP WATCH
18 NOV 2024

  • A year after Operation 1027: junta loses 85 towns, over 2,500 positions incl. N. Eastern HQ.
  • Junta beheads, disembowels, mutilates and burns alive victims of Budalin massacre.
  • Thai officers allow junta to select conscripts from immigration detention.
  • Children and IDPs fleeing junta raids in Tanintharyi killed after overcrowded boat capsizes. 
  • Smugglers in Thailand, Indonesia leave hundreds of Rohingya refugees for dead.
  • KIA seizes rare earth mining area along Chinese border from Kachin BGF.

COUP WATCH
16 Oct 2024

  • Typhoon Yagi worsens seasonal floods, kills 433, affects 1 million. Meanwhile, junta responds with airstrikes and aid blockage.
  • Junta sends fake invitation to resistance to join fake election.
  • Junta preparations to execute 5 sparks alarm on capital punishment.
  • MNDAA appeases Beijing: cuts ties with NUG and China’s adversaries.
  • Europe’s Airbus linked to junta via Chinese aviation firm AVIC.
  • Junta economic remedy dead on arrival, exacerbates medicine shortage.

COUP WATCH
10 Sep 2024

  • Junta blocks draft-age youths from exiting through Yangon airport.
  • Joint TNLA-PDF, Operation 1027 phase 2, advances towards Mandalay.
  • Junta economic incompetence hits gas on fuel crisis.
  • French manufacturer found supplying junta air transport.
  • Kachin Independence Army advances into Sagaing.
  • S. Arakan State violence displaces 40,000 into Ayeyarwady Region.



COUP WATCH
13 Aug 2024

  • Resistance force take junta North Eastern Army HQ in Lashio.
  • 1027 Part 2 reaches Mandalay, resistance occupies Singu & Mogoke towns.
  • Thai banks meet UNSR, gov’t to probe junta arms transactions.
  • Junta drains Mobye dam, displaces over 1,000 & destroys 1,000 acres in crops downstream.
  • Junta circumvents sanctions, receives jet fuel shipments.
  • Soe Win, FM and sham election contestants visit China.
  • Floods affect 240,000 people.
 
 

COUP WATCH
12 Jul 2024

  •  Junta airstrikes set to double on previous year; aerial attack on wedding kills 28, incl. 6 children.
  • Junta breaks ceasefire with 3BHA, reignites Operation 1027 in Northern Shan State.
  • Conscription of women begins despite prior denials.
  • UN expert: Thai bank top among 15 worldwide enablers of USD 630 million in junta arms purchases.
  • Digital dictatorship: VPN ban in effect online and in the street.
  • Argentine prosecutor seeks warrants for Min Aung, Soe Win & Aung San Suu Kyi for Rohingya genocide.




COUP WATCH
11 June 2024

  • Rohingya targeted by Arakan Army and junta – at least 150,000 displaced in Buthidaung.
  • Heatwave reaches 48.2°C, kills over 1,400 nationwide in April.
  • Junta massacre kills at least 76 civilians in Sittwe.
  • Organizers drop Burma as host for international beauty pageant.
  • Armed groups abduct Rohingya refugees from Cox’s Bazar, deliver to junta frontlines.
  • Prison court lengthens Monywa strike leader’s sentence to 74 years.
  • Japanese government rep. holds first official dialogue with resistance groups and NUG.

COUP WATCH
15 May 2024

  •  Arakan Army and junta pose dual threat to Rohingya civilians. War intensifies in Arakan State.
  • Resistance attacks reach heart of junta power – Naypyidaw airbase struck.
  • Thingyan prison shamnesty: junta releases only 101 political prisoners, rearrests Chin Christian leader.
  • US’ Schlumberger still supplying oil & gas equipment to junta MOGE.
  • MNDAA publicly tries own soldiers for kidnapping and murder, summarily executes them.
  • UN appoints former Australia FM to Special Envoy role after nearly one year vacancy.

COUP WATCH
11 April 2024

COUP WATCH BRIEFER MARCH 2024: JUNTA CELEBRATIONS BELIE DYSFUNCTION AS TROOPS FLEE ACROSS BORDERS

  • Economy sinks further as youth flee illegal conscription law.
  • Hundreds of defeated junta troops flee to Bangladesh and Thailand.
  • Armed Forces Day parade underwhelms as junta stretched thin.
  •  67 more dead at sea after Rohingya boat capsizes off Aceh.
  • Desperate junta conscripts Rohingya,forces anti-AA protests.
  • Junta beats, shoots dead Dawei political prisoners.

COUP WATCH
16 MARCH 2024

COUP WATCH BRIEFER FEBRUARY 2024: JUNTA LASHES OUT AT CIVILIANS AS IT LOSES MORE GROUND

  • Junta enforces conscription, causes mass panic, and targets Rohingya IDPs.
  • Junta bombs Karenni school during class, maims students.
  • Horrifying video of junta burning alive two PDF members surfaces. 
  • Burma is now first in the world on the Global Organized Crime Index.
  • “Overburdened” Bangladesh closes  border to fleeing Rohingya, others.
  • Thailand pushes ahead with controversial humanitarian corridor plans.

COUP WATCH
11 February 2024

COUP WATCH BRIEFER JANUARY 2024:
COUP LEADER LOSES GRIP ON COMMANDERS AND SUPPORTERS

  • Thousands of junta troops surrender in N Shan & Arakan States, 382 flee to India after losses in Chin State.
  • Junta generals jailed for surrendering to resistance at the fall of Laukkai.
  • Junta immediately breaks second China- brokered ceasefire, Three Brotherhood Alliance maintains defense.

  • 2023 deadliest year for Rohingya refugee
    sea crossings.
  • ASEAN cheers Thai-junta partnership in humanitarian aid delivery.
  • Rohingya refugees file public interest litigation against Facebook in India.

COUP WATCH
15 January 2024

COUP WATCH BRIEFER DECEMBER 2023:
ILLEGAL JUNTA'S LOSING STREAK CONTINUES WITH NO BREAK IN SIGHT

  • Junta breaks terms of China-brokered temporary ceasefire with Three Brotherhood Alliance member with air and artillery strikes.
  • Thailand to form humanitarian aid taskforce with illegal junta.
  • Junta greed sinks to new low with policy to extort money from undocumented migrants.
  • Burma takes top spot from Afghanistan in opium cultivation.
  • Illegal junta shells, bombs museum and a proposed UNESCO world heritage site in Arakan State

COUP WATCH

13 December 2023

COUP WATCH BRIEFER NOVEMBER 2023: ILLEGAL JUNTA SUFFERS LOSSES ON MULTIPLE FRONTS THROUGHOUT BURMA

  • Resistance offensives spread to 11 states and regions. The junta beefs up troop presence in Naypyidaw.
  • Over 500,000 civilians displaced in just one month. The total displaced population now at 2.5 million, including 1.9 million since Feb 2021.
  • In retaliation, the junta kills 300 civilians. It launches 113 airstrikes, the highest in a month.
  • Karenni resistance launches Operation 11.11. 
  • Over 1,000 Rohingya refugees arrive in Aceh, Indonesia after perilous sea crossing. 66% are women and children.
  • Seven countries declare intervention in Rohingya genocide case at ICJ.

COUP WATCH
9 NOVEMBER 2023

COUP WATCH BRIEFER OCTOBER 2023: ILLEGAL JUNTA HIT BY MORE SANCTIONS AND RESISTANCE OFFENSIVE

  • Operation 1027: Resistance Alliance catches junta off guard, takes control of border towns, bases in N. Shan State.
  • Junta kills 29 Kachin IDPs in midnight air and artillery strike.
  • US adds to sanctions on junta banks by sanctioning Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE), but fails to ban its trade with US nationals, freeze US assets.
  • Junta’s Digital Coup: 2nd in online repression, 1,300 users arrested, and a looming surveillance data hoard.
  • Junta cancels passports in brazen act of transnational repression.

COUP WATCH
11 OCTOBER 2023

COUP WATCH BRIEFER SEPTEMBER 2023: JUNTA DESTABILIZED BY TROUBLE IN ITS TOP RANKS

  • Junta jailers brought to heel by hunger strike.
  • ASEAN concludes summit with introduction of troika of special envoys.
  • Thai MP blasts junta incursion into Thailand.
  • Shattered healthcare system faces diseases spread and puts HIV patients at risk.
  • Junta moves ahead with forced repatriation of Rohingya refugees, aims to refoul 7,000 by end of year.
  • In preparation of sham election, junta moves ahead with census and biometric data capture.
  • The junta’s attempted coup turns Burma into online scam haven.

COUP WATCH
08 SEPTEMBER 2023

COUP WATCH BRIEFER SEPTEMBER 2023: JUNTA AGAIN DENIES GENOCIDE ON 6-YEAR ANNIVERSARY

  • Activists mark six years since Rohingya Genocide, call for end to junta impunity
  • Junta resorts to arrests and brute force as foreign banks turn their backs and foreign exchange rates rise
  • Junta cabinet is purged of ten senior members in a move to strengthen grip on key ministries and ensure longevity
  • Junta once more admits incapacity, withdraws itself from 2025-26 ASEAN chairship
  • Junta flotilla sails up Irrawaddy through Kachin State, kills civilians, takes others hostage
  • Foreign aid still banned as junta propagandizes UNOCHA meeting

COUP WATCH
10 AUGUST 2023

JULY 2023: ILLEGAL JUNTA VIOLATES OWN CONSTITUTION AND EXTENDS STATE OF EMERGENCY AGAIN

  • The junta postpones its illegitimate election at the 11th hour, declares fourth state of emergency illegally.
  • Death without a sentence: junta ramps up summary executions of political prisoners.
  • A global threat: Russia found using junta-made weapons in Ukraine.
  • Rohingya refugees continue to face violence at the hands of armed groups and Bangladeshi authorities.
  • Junta vies for legitimacy through alleged meeting between Thai FM and Aung San Suu Kyi, further divides ASEAN ahead of its ministerial meeting.

COUP WATCH
11 JULY 2023

JUNE 2023 - ILLEGAL JUNTA BLOCKS AID ONE MONTH AFTER CYCLONE MOCHA RAVAGES BURMA

  • Illegal junta’s cyclone recovery management: a man-made disaster affecting aid, health, and education.
  • Austrian, Indian, Israeli, Italian, and Swedish companies named as links in weapons supply chain to illegal junta.
  • Garment sector union members arrested, EU responds with tepid condemnation, Zara parent company announces exit.
  • Outgoing Thai government engages with illegal junta, widens rift in ASEAN.
  • ASEAN allows illegal junta and Russia to host Defense Minister’s Meeting, gives regimes a propaganda platform.

COUP WATCH
15 JUNE 2023

MAY 2023 -CYCLONE MOCHA: ILLEGAL JUNTA OBSTRUCTS HUMANITARIAN AID

  • From bad to worse: Junta delays humanitarian aid access to States and Regions hit by Cyclone Mocha.
  • Junta perpetuates Rohingya genocide through ineffective evacuation “attempt”.
  • NUG establishes new federal education policy prioritizing ethnic languages while illegal junta further restricts education.
  • Pazigyi airstrike: new evidence shows crime against humanity through use of unconventional weapons.
  • Thai PM-Elect reiterates Thailand’s integral role in ASEAN Five-point consensus and suggests establishment of humanitarian corridor.

COUP WATCH
10 MAY 2023

APRIL 2023 -THE ILLEGAL JUNTA COMMITS MASS MURDER AHEAD OF BUDDHIST NEW YEAR

  • The junta’s 17 air strikes in April kill more civilians than during the entire period of Feb 2021 – Mar 2023.
  • Junta carries out its deadliest air strike to date, killing 200 civilians in Sagaing before Thingyan; follows up with clearance operation.
  • Clashes with junta forces near shadowy development project displaces over 10,000 civilians.
  • Former UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon pays visit to coup leader at junta’s invitation; engages NUG after backlash.
  • Junta head Min Aung Hlaing approves a 51% jump in military spending for 2023 – 2024.

COUP WATCH
10 APRIL 2023

MARCH 2023 - THE ILLEGAL JUNTA DISSOLVES RIVAL PARTIES AND READIES INTERNMENT CAMPS

  • Illegal junta dissolves NLD & 39 other parties – the winners of 88.45% of parliament seats in 2020.
  • China, India, Bangladesh & ASEAN reps visit ‘transit camp’ for forcibly repatriated Rohingya.
  • Junta forces execute 29 civilians including three monks and two teenage boys in Shan State ‘Ogre column’ beheads at least 4 in Sagaing & Magwe.
  • Five webinars held on 2nd anniversary of Federal Democratic charter to move forward constitution-drafting process.

COUP WATCH
10 MAR 2023

FEBRUARY 2023 - JUNTA’S VIOLENCE AND INCOMPETENCE EXACERBATES ECONOMIC WOES

  • Junta courts rejected ousted State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s appeal against a three-year sentence on two charges.
  • Regime troops abducted seven civilians including two children who were later decapitated. Junta forces and affiliated militias burned alive a 70- year-old nun, marking the 3000th confirmed civilian death since Feb 202.
  • The junta’s shortsighted economic policies caused Burma’s rice market to spiral into further chaos. Chevron’s exit from Burma spelled significant losses for the regime’s cashflow.

COUP WATCH
8 February 2023

JANUARY 2023 - REGIME STEPS UP PREPARATIONS FOR SHAM ‘ELECTION’ AS RESISTANCE BITES

  • The junta has killed at least 2,688 civilians and arrested 17,573 as of 31 Jan. Burma now has 1,584,300 IDPs.
  • The regime began to compile voter lists in preparations for its sham 2023 ‘election.’ Resistance groups attacked census agents in several locations, killing at least 13.
  • The junta adopted a new Political Parties Registration Law that will allow the military-aligned USDP to run unchallenged and lead to the dissolution of the NLD.
  • UNHCR reported that over 3,500 Rohingya attempted to flee Bangladesh and Burma by sea in 2022, up from 700 in 2021. At least 348 died or went missing; the highest figure since 2014.

COUP WATCH
9 JAN 2023

DECEMBER 2022 - SECURITY COUNCIL FAILS TO DELIVER REAL ACTION AS HUMANITARIAN NEEDS EXPLODE

  • The regime sentenced State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint to seven more years in prison each.
  • UNOCHA projected that 17.6 million people will need humanitarian assistance and protection in 2023 (34% of the pop).
  • The UN Security Council adopted a resolution urging the release of political prisoners and an end to violence. China and Russia opposed giving the UNSC coercive powers to enforce it.
  • UNHCR reported that some 1,920 people, mostly Rohingya, had fled Burma and Bangladesh by sea during Jan-Nov 2022. An estimated 119 died, and 180 are feared dead: the highest toll in years.
  • The US Congress passed the BURMA Act, broadening the government’s authority to provide non-lethal assistance to resistance groups.

COUP WATCH
6 DEC 2022

NOVEMBER 2022 - TEMPORARY CEASEFIRE IN RAKHINE AS ASEAN STARTS GETTING SERIOUS

  • As of 25 Nov, there had been at least 18,289 armed clashes and attacks, resulting in the displacement of 1,208,700 people since the coup began.
  • Junta forces have killed at least 2,553 civilians and arrested 16,472 as of 30 Nov. Junta courts sentenced six NLD MPs to prison terms; as well as seven student activists to death in November.
  • Fighting between the AA and regime forces intensified in Rakhine State, before both sides verbally agreed to a temporary ceasefire on 26 Nov.
  • ASEAN leaders agreed to develop an implementation plan for the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus, keep barring the junta from high-level meetings, and engage with ‘all stakeholders’ soon.

COUP WATCH
8 NOV 2022

OCTOBER 2022 - ASEAN STICKS TO FAILING CONSENSUS AS CRISIS DEEPENS

  • As of 28 Oct, there had been at least 16,651 armed clashes and attacks, resulting in the displacement of 1,161,800 people since the coup began.
  • Regime jets bombed a music concert in Kachin State, killing up to 80 people and drawing international outrage, days before an ASEAN emergency meeting on the crisis.
  • Junta forces have killed at least 2,404 civilians and arrested 16,016 as of 31 Oct.
  • ASEAN Foreign Ministers decided to stick to the failing Five-Point Consensus despite the regime’s unwillingness to implement it.

COUP WATCH
8 OCT 2022

SEPTEMBER 2022 - ALL-OUT WAR BEGINS IN RAKHINE STATE AS REGIME LOSES GRIP ON BURMA

  • Fighting between junta and AA forces escalated further and spread to Rakhine State’s central townships. The regime used indiscriminate artillery fire against civilian areas.
  • Junta forces have killed at least 2,327 civilians and arrested 15,691 as of 30 Sep. The regime continued to target former officials and NLD members, as well as perceived opponents and their families.
  •  Malaysia further hardened its stance against the regime, repeating calls for ASEAN to engage with the NUG, to urgently provide humanitarian assistance to Burma through local CSOs, and to consider replacing the Five-Point Consensus with a new roadmap.
  • The Special Advisory Council for Myanmar reported that the junta and its proxy militias were only in control of 93 of Burma’s 330 townships.

COUP WATCH
8 SEP 2022

AUGUST 2022 - BURMA FURTHER PLUNGES INTO CHAOS AS CONFLICT HEATS UP IN RAKHINE STATE

  • As of 12 Aug, there had been at least 14,461 armed clashes and attacks, resulting in the displacement of 1,019,900 people since the coup began. Military tensions increased significantly in Rakhine State, with several clashes breaking out.
  • Junta forces have killed at least 2,259 civilians and arrested 15,294 as of 31 Aug. A junta court sentenced Aung San Suu Kyi to a further six years in prison for corruption.
  • Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing replaced top officials with loyalists to consolidate control ahead of the sham 2023 election.
  • The Kyat continued its dive, forcing the regime to ease its disastrous exchange rate policies. Inflation kept driving up prices, leading to shortages.

COUP WATCH
5 AUG 2022

JULY 2022 - JUNTA’S EXECUTIONS SPARK GLOBAL OUTCRY AS OPPOSITION PROMISES PAYBACK

  • The regime executed four political prisoners — a first in decades. Opposition forces staged protest actions and vowed to step up resistance.
  • The junta continued to crack down on pro-democracy activists and commit atrocity crimes throughout the country. Soldiers had killed at least 2,138 civilians and arrested 14,402 as of 29 Jul.
  • The ICJ dismissed the regime’s preliminary objections in The Gambia vs Myanmar case, allowing the proceedings to move forward.
  • The World Bank projected a mere 3% growth in 2021-22, warning that political and economic uncertainty had severely damaged Burma’s financial system.

COUP WATCH
6 JULY 2022

JUNE 2022 - REGIME SET TO RESUME JUDICIAL EXECUTIONS AMID EVER-INCREASING VIOLENCE

  • Junta troops continued to storm the countryside, committing scores of war crimes. The regime had killed at least 2,040 civilians and arrested 14,402 as of 30 Jun.
  • A junta-controlled court issued execution orders for four high-profile opponents; the first in decades.
  • The NUG made unprecedented commitments to address past wrongs against Rohingya and ethnic groups.
  • The World Bank could not issue growth forecasts for Burma beyond 2021; highlighting the regime’s devastation of the economy.

COUP WATCH
3 JUNE 2022

MAY 2022 - JUNTA AND AA ON THE BRINK OF WAR AS DISPLACEMENT FIGURES HIT RECORD HIGH

  • The number of IDPs exceeded one million for the first time. Junta troops continued to slash their way through Burma, killing civilians and torching villages. At least 5,646 civilians have been killed since 1 Feb 2021, a number unprecedented in the country’s modern history.
  • Conflict heated up significantly in the West, with several clashes breaking out between the junta and the Arakan Army (AA).
  • The regime took more steps to rig the next elections. It continued to persecute top NLD officials while pro-junta vigilante groups stepped up attacks on party members and supporters.

COUP WATCH
5 MAY 2022

APRIL 2022 - NOT SATISFIED WITH METAPHOR, JUNTA TRIES TO BURN BURMA DOWN

  • In the face of nationwide resistance, junta forces engaged in a scorched-earth campaign. In less than 3 months (Feb–Apr 2022), they reportedly torched 5,617 homes in Sagaing Region alone. Since 2021, junta forces have destroyed at least 97 religious buildings nationwide.
  • The junta continued to target relatives of people they hunted, including wives and children. It has killed at least 132 children.
  • At least 1% of Burma’s population has been displaced since 1 Feb 2021, bringing the total number of IDPs to at least 912,700. The junta continued to block humanitarian aid.
  • The cash-strapped junta required businesses to convert all foreign currency into MMK at an artificially low rate, further damaging the economy.

COUP WATCH
1 APRIL 2022

MARCH 2022 - WITH NO SUCCESS IN SIGHT, JUNTA DIGS IN WITH DIRTY TACTICS

On 27 Mar, junta leader Min Aung Hlaing vowed to “annihilate the opposition.” As of 31 Mar, the junta had arrested at least 13,040 civilians, including politicians, activists, and journalists, and killed at least 2,053 civilians. The junta got dirtier in its tactics. It funded paramilitary groups, enacted “legislation” allowing it to conscript police into its war, used social media channels to discredit and hunt down its opposition, and demanded that hospitals turn over patient records to undermine treatment of opponents. Cities across Burma struggled with power blackouts as electricity production fell to a quarter of the national demand. Outages disrupted water distribution and business operations, while rising fuel prices made the use of generators unsustainable.

COUP WATCH
2 MARCH 2022

FEBRUARY 2022 - ATTACKS CONTINUE AND ASEAN CHAIR THROWS UP HIS HANDS

During 1–25 Feb, there were at least 741 armed clashes and attacks on civilians (or 29.64 per day), compared to 23.69/day over the prior twelve months. UNHCR said that 810,000 IDPs in Burma, likely a significant underestimate. As of 28 Feb, the junta had arrested at least 12,417 civilians, including politicians, activists, and journalists, and killed at least 1,869 civilians. COVID-19 cases spiked dramatically. The EU placed sanctions on Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise (MOGE). As new ASEAN Chair, Cambodia prevented the junta from attending the first ASEAN meeting of 2022, but conceded that it could do little to improve the situation.

COUP WATCH
9 FEBRUARY 2022

SPECIAL EDITION: A YEAR OF STRUGGLE IN BURMA

In the year since the Burma military attempted to launch a coup, it has critically harmed millions of lives, the national economy, rule of law, natural resources, and governance.
Armed clashes and attacks on civilians rose by 762%. Just in January 2022, there were more of these incidents than during the entire year preceding the attempted coup.
ALTSEAN-Burma has tracked the most important updates during this time in its online thematic Coup Trackers, and summarized these updates by publishing a Coup Watch briefer each month. This special edition of the Coup Watch draws on these tools to provide a one-year overview.

COUP WATCH
2 FEBRUARY 2022

JANUARY 2022 - A YEAR IN, JUNTA SHOWS NO SIGN OF SLOWING BLOODSHED

Burma’s junta continued to escalate violence as it desperately sought to gain control of the country in the 12th month of its attempted coup. During 1–28 Jan 2022, there were at least 851 clashes or attacks on civilians, a 1,318% increase from January 2021. During its assault on Loikaw, the Karenni State capital, the junta bombed multiple IDP camps, and shut off electric, water, and internet services for the town. An estimated 50–90% of Loikaw’s population is displaced. The World Bank projected just 1% growth in 2022. Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen visited Burma; civilians in Burma, the NUG government, and fellow ASEAN members denounced the move.

COUP WATCH
UPDATED 5 JANUARY 2022

DECEMBER 2021 - JUNTA CAPITALIZES ON POOR INTERNATIONAL RESOLVE TO STEP UP SAVAGERY

Burma’s illegitimate military regime kept trying to grind down a nation that overwhelmingly rejects it. During 1 Feb–10 Dec 2021, there were at least 7,053 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 664% increase from the same period in 2020. Increased attacks caused 5,000 Karen villagers to flee into Thailand, and pushed Thai villagers on the border to relocate for safety. As of 1 Dec, 432 NLD members remained in detention, while junta military tribunals had sentenced 92 people to death. UNDP warned that 46.3% of the population will be living in poverty in 2022. It is estimated that 14.4 million people will need humanitarian assistance in 2022.

COUP WATCH
2 DECEMBER 2021

NOVEMBER 2021 - JUNTA VOWS TO WIPE OUT RESISTANCE; CONFLICT NUMBERS TELL THE STORY

During 1 Feb–26 Nov, there were 6,675 armed clashes and attacks on civilians, a 632% increase from the same period in 2020. The junta’s crimes resulted in a massive increase in displaced persons, including around 50,000 just in Chin, Sagaing, and Magway since May 2021. Junta courts handed down lengthy sentences to high-profile NLD leaders. Sham trials against Aung San Suu Kyi moved forward, but the court delayed two verdicts without explanation. Junta military courts sentenced 21 people to death and 29 to life in prison. The junta ordered its soldiers in Sagaing, Tanintharyi, and Mandalay Regions to shoot at any male passenger on a motorbike.

COUP WATCH
3 NOVEMBER 2021

OCTOBER 2021 - JUNTA ESCALATION, PRESIDENTIAL REVELATION, ASEAN REBUKE

The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) finally rebuked the junta for failing to comply with its April Five-Point Consensus, choosing not to invite Min Aung Hlaing to its Summit on 26–28 October. Detained President Win Myint revealed that the military tried to strong arm him into resigning, adding to the list of reasons the junta is illegitimate. The junta poured thousands of troops into Northwest Burma, razed villages, and committed grievous human rights abuses. During 1 Feb–29 Oct, there were 5,685 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 574% increase from the same period in 2020 (843).

COUP WATCH
UPDATED 10 OCTOBER 2021

SEPTEMBER 2021 - JUNTA SOWS TERROR AMID POPULAR RESISTANCE AND ECONOMIC COLLAPSE

The National Unity Government (NUG) declared war on 7 September, officially acknowledging the nationwide civil war and recognizing the population’s right to self-defense. During 1 Feb–30 Sep, there were 5,042 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 588% increase from the same period in 2020. As of 1 Sep, the illegal junta had charged at least 100 NLD members, including Aung San Suu Kyi, with high treason (a capital offence), corruption, and incitement. As of 30 Sep, the junta had killed at least 1,146 civilians and detained at least 8,584 politicians, activists, journalists and others, in attacks against democracy.

COUP WATCH
UPDATED 10 OCTOBER 2021

AUGUST 2021 - CONFLICT SPEEDS UP AMID COVID-19 CRISIS

Junta leader Min Aung Hlaing declared himself prime minister of a “caretaker” government, but continued to call the shots as SAC Chair. Promised elections were pushed back to Aug 2023. The junta continued its crackdown on the NLD, and even made an attempt on the life of Kyaw Moe Tun, Burma’s Ambassador to the UN, in New York.

The coup ravaged the people of Burma. During Feb–Jul, there were 3,601 attacks on civilians or armed clashes that failed to protect them, a 521% increase from the same months in 2020.

COUP WATCH
2 AUGUST 2021

JULY 2021 - JUNTA DESTROYS TOOLS FOR DEALING WITH COVID-19

In the sixth month since its forcible and unconstitutional power grab, the junta’s oppressive acts to secure political, territorial, or economic control have escalated conflict and the deadliness of a third wave of COVID-19. COVID-19 ripped ferociously through Burma, where a weakened health system and junta restrictions on treatment measures contributed to untold deaths. As the junta brought testing closer to pre-coup levels, it saw COVID-19 positivity rates up to 40%.

During July alone, security forces killed at least 56 civilians. There were 348 violent attacks that either targeted or failed to protect civilians during 1–23 Jul, and a total 3,446 incidents 1 Feb–23 Jul.

COUP WATCH
2 JULY 2021

JUNE 2021 - JUNTA WORSENS THREATS CAUSED BY CONFLICT AND COVID-19

In the fifth month since its forcible and unconstitutional power grab, the junta’s oppressive acts to secure political, territorial, or economic control have escalated conflict and the threats posed by a third wave of COVID-19.
Security forces created battlefields in more towns and cities, expanded airstrikes on Chin, Kachin, Karen, Karenni, and Sagaing States/Regions, and shelled villages in all of these places as well as in Shan State. During June alone, security forces killed at least 81 civilians and displaced over 30,000. There were 538 violent attacks that either targeted or failed to protect civilians during 1–25 Jun, and a total 3,012 incidents 1 Feb–25 Jun.

COUP WATCH
1 JUNE 2021 (UPDATE 2 JUNE 2021)

MAY 21 - LACKING CONTROL AND CONCERN, JUNTA TRIES TO KEEP ITSELF ALIVE

The junta, still unable to gain political, territorial or economic control in the fourth month since its forcible and unconstitutional power grab, has engulfed the entire country in armed conflict. Security forces created battlefields in more towns and cities, expanded airstrikes on Kachin and Karen states, and continued shelling villages in Chin, Kachin, Karen, Shan, and Sagaing States/Regions. During May alone, security forces killed at least 125 civilians and displaced over 150,000. There were 530 violent attacks that either targeted or failed to protect civilians in the first three weeks of May, and a total 2,098 incidents 1 Feb–21 May.

COUP WATCH
2 MAY 2021 (UPDATE 5 MAY 2021)

APRIL 21 - GOVERNMENT LOCKED OUT OF THE HOUSE WHILE JUNTA LAUNCHES NEW CIVIL WAR INSIDE

The SAC junta continues to escalate its war on its own civilians in a desperate attempt to gain political, territorial and economic control of the country. Brutal crackdowns and massacres of civilian protestors in Burma’s towns and cities are accompanied by deadly, indiscriminate airstrikes in Kachin and Karen States. During April alone, security forces killed at least 288 civilians and displaced over 27,000.The junta sentenced 26 civilians to death in military tribunals.

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1 APRIL 2021

MARCH 2021 - JUNTA LAUNCHES MILITARY OFFENSIVE ON DEMOCRACY MOVEMENT IN DESPERATE BID FOR CONTROL

The junta, still unable to gain political, territorial or economic control in the second month of its power grab, has escalated military offensives on both the democracy movement and border-based ethnic communities. Security forces have unleashed lethal battlefield tactics and weapons on civilians throughout the country, killing scores in the towns and cities of Ayeyarwaddy, Bago, Kachin, Mandalay, Mon, Sagaing, Shan, Thanitharyi, and Yangon States and Regions.

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1 MARCH 2021

FEBRUARY 2021 - URGENT ACTION REQUIRED TO PREVENT DESTABILIZING VIOLENCE

A month after its 1 February 2021 coup, the military junta’s escalation of disproportionate violence and terror tactics, backed by deployment of notorious military units to repress peaceful demonstrations, underlines the urgent need for substantive international action to prevent massive, destabilizing violence.

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